Oil Depletion Protocol

After publishing his pathbreaking book The Party’s Over, Richard Heinberg has turned his attention to ways of dealing with the inevitable energy descent. His latest effort is a new book, The Oil Depletion Protocol (New Society Publishers), a belt-tightening regime which Heinberg summarized in his ASPO-5 presentation today. “It’s clear that unless we have a means of rationing oil, we’ll end up fighting over it,” he said.

The Oil Depletion Protocol builds on earlier efforts—The Uppsala and Rimini protocols, for example—and its success depends on a world that cooperates to divvy up the remaining supplies. It comes on the heels of the Kyoto Agreement, which similarly depends on widespread adoption by nations.

Heinberg said the idea of a depletion protocol is extremely simple. “It can be explained in a few minutes to anyone,” he said. The “operating condition” is that nations “reduced oil consumption by at least the world depletion rate”—assumed to be about 2.6% per year but could be adjusted upward as needed. At the same time, no country should produce above the present depletion rate.

How would countries adapt? Heinberg rolled out the familiar menu of options:

Development of renewable sources—wind, solar, and biomass. “Ultimately this is what we need to depend on anyway, at least by the end of this century. So it makes sense to invest in these at the outset.”

Agriculture needs to be radically restructured to accommodate the protocol’s oil diet, Heinberg said. It will need to become more labor intensive and dependent on “localized organic production.” Permaculture techniques are going to become increasingly valuable for surviving the descent.

And we can take simple steps, like planting a vegetable garden. “During the second world war, 40% of our vegetables used to be produced in back yards.” He said.

Car-dependent countries like the US and Australia have a lot of catching up to do. But baby steps are possible to begin the weaning process, like car sharing and community supported hitchhiking. What’s the incentive for nations to sign up? “Oil depletion is happening whether we plan for it or not,” he said. “Those that plan will be better off.”

Sweden has set the right example, adopting a national goal of aggressively cutting oil consumption at a rate that actually exceeds the annual 2.6% rate recommended by Heinberg’s protocol. Heinberg thinks the world can successful implement the protocol. No incentives are needed, he said, because nations that adopt the protocol will thrive and those that don’t will see the obvious benefits of joining the club.

One hitch: To join the protocol you’ll need to agree to a comprehensive national oil audit so that an international “secretariat” can monitor compliance. But such transparency is desperately needed anyway, he said. Heinberg said adopting the protocol before the peak is preferred, but it’s never too late.

“Nations that drag their heels will suffer the most,” he said. The key to implementing the protocol for industrialized nations will be the adoption of import quotas. In the long run, Heinberg said the protocol gives the world a better mechanism for managing energy descent than standard market and priced-based solutions.

If the transition is left to the market, we’re likely to see very volatile prices that will hinder “adaptation” while the protocol will moderate big price swings. “We need high prices,” he said. “But we need stable high prices – and that’s what the protocol will provide.”